S&P 500 Forecast: Seeing Volatility

This is a market that will probably have to deal with gravity over the next 24 hours or so.

• The S&P 500 Index has been on fire over the last several sessions, but Monday was a little bit different.
• The area that the market is currently trading in shows signs of hesitation and significant resistance, so it is probably only a matter of time before we see a bit of selling pressure.
• Whether or not that’s anything of substance remains to be seen, but if you have been following me here at DailyForex, you know that I had suggested previously that the 4200 level has the air of being rather important.

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S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The market is overstretched in the short-term, but whether or not we have reached a top would be something that remains to be seen. At this point, if we can break above the 4200 level which shows a significant amount of bullish momentum, but it looks as if the market is willing to at least give back some of the gains. At this point, a pullback to the 4000 level makes quite a bit of sense. The 50-day EMA sits underneath there near the 3930 level, so that’s also a potential target.

Keep in mind that earnings season is currently going on, so we will have to pay close attention to those announcements, but at the end of the day I think we have a situation where the market is probably more focused on the Federal Reserve than anything else. Because of this, the market is going to be focusing on the bond market, because it is currently suggesting that perhaps the Fed has already reached peak tightening. However, at the same time, Federal Reserve officials are suggesting otherwise. In other words, we have mass delusion on one side or the other yet again.

This only leads to one conclusion, that there is going to be a lot of volatility no matter what we do. The fact that we have shot straight up in the air and then finally printed a bit of a hesitation candle does suggest that perhaps Tuesday could be a bit negative, but I don’t necessarily think that it is the beginning of a massive meltdown. In other words, this is a market that will probably have to deal with gravity over the next 24 hours or so.

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