BTC/USD Forex Signal: Back Above $20k

Previous BTC/USD Signal

My previous signal last Wednesday were not triggered as there was no bullish price action when the support level which I identified at $20,153 was first reached.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.

Long Trade Ideas

• Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $19,700, $19,315, or $19,164.
• Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Ideas

• Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $20,516, or $21,141.
• Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

Advertisement

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous analysis one week ago that the short-term price action was bearish and suggested that the price may well now break down below the support level at $20,153. I thought however that the more distant levels at $23k and $19,164 looked likely to be more reliable as support and resistance.

I was correct about the breakdown but the levels I gave were not useful in the end.

A few days ago, BTC/USD and Ethereum were looking likely to make further dramatic price declines – I was waiting for a daily close here below $18,500 as a short trade entry signal. I was correct to look to this level as, to the surprise of many, Bitcoin and major cryptos seem to have held up from these lows.

The technical picture looks considerably more bullish, although the waves higher are a little choppy and quite deep. We do not only see higher lows and higher highs, but also a bullish base formed which seems to be turning into a cup and handle chart pattern, which would suggest the price is likely to rise with increasingly strong bullish momentum.

Before the price can make such a rise, it must break up past the resistance level at $20,516 which looks very significant. However, it is hard to pinpoint the level – it would be better to treat it as a zone around this price.

Overall, a daily (New York) close today above $20,516 would suggest the price is likely to continue rising to at least $21,141 over the coming days.

Concerning the US Dollar, there will be a release of JOLTS Job Openings data at 3pm London time, followed by the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 5pm.