Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Price Deepens its Losses

We expect the continuation of this corrective decline.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) declined in their recent trading at the intraday levels, to record daily losses until the moment of writing this report, by -1.44%. It settled at the price of $6.094 per million British thermal units, after falling slightly during trading on Friday. By -0.15%, during last week’s trading, the price incurred sharp losses for the second week in a row, by -11.51%.

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Nymex July gas futures settled on Friday at $6,220/MMBtu, down just 1.9 cents on the day/day. This is after prices took a hit when it was verified that an outage at a major US export terminal could significantly increase inventories.

NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg spot gas prices also continued to decline amid mild temperatures in several parts of the US, dropping by 41.5 cents to settle at $5,980.

Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve officials maintained their hawkish rhetoric with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly saying on Friday that another 75 basis point rate hike in July is the “starting point”. But markets backed off bets on sharp interest rate hikes.

Russia finally seemed poised for its first sovereign debt default in decades, with some bondholders saying they did not receive late interest on Monday after the main repayment deadline expired the day before.

Technically, natural gas is trying in its recent trading to correct the main bullish trend in the medium term in light of its trading along a major bullish trend line. This is shown in the attached chart for a period of time (daily), where the price suffers in its recent trading from the continuation of negative pressure. It is trading below the simple moving average for a period of 50 previous days. We notice in the midst of this that the RSI indicators reached oversold areas, exaggeratedly compared to the price movement.

Therefore, and amid successive losses for the price in its recent short-term trades, we expect the continuation of this corrective decline, especially throughout its stability below the resistance level of 6.361, to target the first important support levels at the price of 5.660.