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At this point, I do not see a potential long set up.
The Australian dollar initially rallied on Wednesday to reach near the 0.72 handle. By doing so, it shows a real chance of trying to recover. However, the market sold off almost immediately and has since looked very poor. By forming an inverted hammer, this suggests that the Aussie is still going to have a lot of overhead resistance. Because of this, I am not necessarily interested in trying to get overly aggressive to the upside, but I do recognize that rallies should continue to be faded.
Breaking below the bottom of the candlestick for the session on Wednesday opens up the possibility that we will go down to the 0.70 level, an area that has been important more than once, and an area that would attract a lot of attention due to the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. Because of this, I would anticipate that a lot of support should show up there, but whether or not it holds would be a completely different question. After all, the US dollar has been like a wrecking ball against almost everything in the world.
The Australian dollar is also highly sensitive to commodity markets, so you will have to keep an eye on them as well. That being said, the commodity markets have looked a little bit soft in general, so it does make sense that we may see negativity here. Although Australia has been outperforming most other economies, the reality is that there is still a lot of concern when it comes to global growth, so it does make a lot of sense that we would see the Aussie dollar reflect the uncertainty of the underlying economy. Furthermore, Australia is highly sensitive to China which has a whole host of problems at the moment.
Keep in mind with the coronavirus lockdowns that we see going on in China right now have locked down over half the economy, so it is not very likely that Australia will be a beneficiary of Asian demand for its commodities. Beyond that, we also have the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy, which continues to drive the US dollar higher in general, which obviously has a significant effect on this market. At this point, I do not see a potential long set up.
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