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The long-term bearish trend remains likely to resume.
My EUR/USD signal on 23rd March was not triggered, as there was no bullish price action when the support level I had identified at $1.0956.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today only.
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0937, $1.0956, $1.0985, or $1.1025.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Idea
- Long entry immediately upon the next touch of $1.0710.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote on the 23rd of March that we were seeing a weakly bullish short-term consolidation above the support level at $1.1012, but it was far from clear what direction the price would take over the day. I thought that a long scalp trade between $1.1000 and $1.1012 might be a good opportunity, but this did not set up.
Over the past couple of weeks, we have continued to see typically deep bullish retracements within a long-term bearish trend which eventually keep reasserting itself. If the price can make a daily (New York) close below $1.0854, it will be making a new bearish breakdown to multi-month lows which would be a bearish sign.
Over the shorter term, we see a bullish rounding near $1.0900 which is pushing the price back up towards the nearby resistance levels, of which there are several, in a bullish retracement. The question is how far this retracement will run.
I think the best approach here today will be to look for a new short trade entry from a convincing reversal on the hourly time frame off any of the nearby resistance levels identified above. I do not want to take any long trades today, although today could be an up day.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either the EUR or the USD.
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