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While Bitcoin is supposed to be a way to operate outside of the financial system, it is now very much a part of it.
Bitcoin went back and forth on Tuesday as we continue to churn just below the $46,000 level. The market has recently broken out, pulled back to the 200-day EMA, and now is looking for some type of catalyst to go higher. Bitcoin does tend to lead the rest of the crypto markets around the world, so even if you are not trading Bitcoin, you need to be aware of what is going on here as it could affect the crypto of your choosing.
Bitcoin sitting on top of the 200-day EMA is a good sign, but we are desperately looking for some type of momentum. The 50-day EMA is at $43,157 and is starting to curl a little bit higher. If we can break above the 200-day EMA with the 50-day EMA, the market is likely to view that as yet another long-term signal to get long, as it would be the “golden cross” that longer-term traders pay attention to. If we do move higher, I believe that the next major barrier to deal with is the $50,000 level, which extends to the $51,000 level above there. Breaking above that then allows Bitcoin to become more “buy-and-hold” than it is at the moment.
It is probably worth noting that we just broke out of a complex W pattern, which is a good sign as well. Any dip at this point will more likely than not offer a buying opportunity as long as we can stay above the 50-day EMA, if not the $40,000 level. Breaking through all of that would be negative but right now it seems as if the market has enough momentum and interest to continue going higher. With that in mind, I believe that this is a market we will eventually see go much higher, perhaps allowing for some type of basing pattern to play out so that longer-term traders can accumulate more Bitcoin.
Pay attention to the Federal Reserve, because depending on how quickly they are looking to tighten monetary policy, it will have a major influence on risk appetite around the world. Remember, Bitcoin is now being traded by large institutions, so it is going to behave more like a typical Wall Street investment. While Bitcoin is supposed to be a way to operate outside of the financial system, it is now very much a part of it.
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