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Ultimately, a lot of this will come down to risk appetite which had been overdone so it does make sense that this bounce is occurring now.
On Monday, we saw a continuation of the bullish pressure in Ethereum that had been a major force over the weekend. It appears that traders are starting to focus more on “The Merge” coming in September, and therefore trying to get ahead of the market. That being said, Ethereum has disappointed more than once when it comes to moving forward, so would not be a huge surprise to see this market roll over again. After all, the market is incredibly fickle, and also is run solely upon the idea of “FOMO.”
When I look at this chart, it’s easy to see that there was a consolidation area just below, and we have broken out of it. That measures for a move to roughly $1500, which is about where we are now. That being said, we have also cleared the 50-day EMA, so that carries a certain amount of weight as well. In this environment, at it’s possible that we could see an extension of the rally all the way to the $1800 level, where I have a line drawn on the chart. This is an area where I would anticipate seeing a lot of resistance, but breaking above there could change a lot of things. We have seen a lot of supply in that area, and quite frankly Ethereum is not out of the woods yet.
I like Ethereum long-term, but I think we still have legs to the downside on the rally. After all, a lot of risk speculation is going to struggle, mainly due to the fact that monetary policy is so tight and a lot of people are concerned about the lack of growth globally. This is not to say that Ethereum cannot take off to the outside, just that it does not favor cryptocurrency taking off at this moment. It’ll be interesting to see how this behaves, but I think it is probably more or less going to be thought of as a “bear market bounce” before it is all said and done. Like it or not, the Federal Reserve controls most of the global financial system, and despite what crypto enthusiasts think, they also control what happens in the crypto markets in an indirect way. Ultimately, a lot of this will come down to risk appetite which had been overdone so it does make sense that this bounce is occurring now.
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