Bulls Testing Descending Trend Line

The AUD rose on a minor risk-on rally.

My previous signal on 30^th June was not triggered, as none of the key support and resistance levels were reached that day.

Today’s AUD/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%

Trades may only be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.

• Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of the descending trend line shown in the price chart below which currently sits at about 0.6898, or 0.6915.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Long Trade Ideas

• Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6848 or 0.6797.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

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AUD/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous forecast on 30^th June that we had a consolidation pattern consolidation reinforced by a narrowing triangle formation which was holding the price, suggesting that the best opportunity which could set up here over the day was a long from another rejection of the level at 0.6848. This did not set up – the price held within the triangle until the Asian session, when it fell strongly enough to cleanly break through that support level.

The Australian Dollar is in focus right now for two reasons:

1. The minor risk rally seen over recent hours has pushed the price up close to the long-term descending trend line, which is shown within the price chart below.

2. The RBA is expected to shortly hike its interest rate by 0.50%. Any deviation from this will certainly cause a major price movement here in the AUD/USD currency pair.

It looks as if we may have an opportunity for a short trade from a bearish reversal at either the descending trend line or the horizontal resistance level at 0.6915. I would be happy to enter either trade. On the other hand, if the price rises after the RBA’s release and holds up for a few hours above the resistance at 0.6915, that would be a significant bullish breakout and suggest the beginning of a stronger bullish price movement.

You can trade my forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account according to whether you want to strengthen your self-confidence before depositing real funds with a suitable Forex / CFD broker.

Concerning the AUD, there will be a release of the RBA’s Cash Rate and Rate Statement at 5:30am London time. There is nothing of importance scheduled today regarding the USD.