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As things stand right now, you are better off trading with a small position and then adding as the market works out in your favor.
The Bitcoin market fell a bit on Friday to show signs of negativity. While we have not broken down below the hammer from the Monday session, we are approaching doing that. If we break down below the Monday hammer, then it is likely that we will go looking to reach the $37,500 level. Breaking below that level could open up the possibility of a challenge to the $35,000 level underneath, which has been rather significant support. For Bitcoin to come even remotely close to saving itself, it must stay above the $35,000 level.
Bitcoin failed at the 50-day EMA over the last couple of days, and it now looks as if we are struggling for footing. The US dollar continues to strengthen, so it does make sense that the BTC/USD pair would fall as the US dollar is half of the equation. The size of the candlestick is somewhat telling because it is bigger than many of the previous ones, but it is not necessarily a brutal candlestick. In other words, there is still a significant chance that the market hangs on in this general vicinity.
As far as buying is concerned, at the very least you would need to see the shooting star taken out to the upside from the Thursday session. That would not only clear a long wick to the upside, but it would also have the market break above the 50-day EMA. In that scenario, it suggests that the market is more than likely going to continue to go higher. The $45,000 level is an area where we have seen a lot of resistance, but it would make a nice target given enough time.
In general, Bitcoin has simply been consolidating for quite some time, but it is also worth noting that as things stand right now, it is a market that continues to see buyers come in at higher levels than the previous time. However, we have not necessarily seen any type of bullish sign, just that we have not broken down. I suspect that Bitcoin is about to make a bigger move, and it should become much clearer rather soon. As things stand right now, you are better off trading with a small position and then adding as the market works out in your favor.
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